TNF Deep Dive With TINA & Myself🦾👀

I decided to crank out some more content today, so here we go.

Some of you already know that I built TINA, my AI statistical data/matchup model to help me analyze games quicker. I named her TINA because it reminds me of a trashy girl (no offense to any Tina’s out there!) and TINA likes to get herself dirty in all the data.

I’ll show you what she thinks and then I have my own matchups that I like in this game to show you. But first…

Random Stuff From This Week 🤔

Joe Burrow’s got models caaaallllllllliiiinnnnn…

I don’t know what to make of this Joe Burrow guy. Great player, great player… but he’s starting to give me Patrick Bateman vibes. I want to see where he’s hiding the bodies.

SI Model Olivia Ponton is the one who called the robbery at Joe Burrow‘s home to the police during MNF. Ponton said when she got to Joe’s home, she noticed a shattered bedroom window and his room ransacked, per TMZ. PONTON IS “EMPLOYED” BY BURROW, per the document. 

Sorry to everyone who bet the Mavs last night. Luckily, I was on OKC. Rememeber, Luka is not yet in shape until playoffs — this is just the NBA Cup playoff.

Rams vs. 49ers Matchup Analysis & Best Bets By TINA

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Thursday, December 12, 2024, 8:15 PM EST

• Venue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

• Spread: 49ers -3 (-105) | Rams +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: 49ers -160 | Rams +135

• Total: O/U 50.0 (-110)

This NFC West showdown carries significant playoff implications as both teams look to stay in the hunt. The Rams are riding a hot streak facing a 49ers squad looking to build momentum after a dominant Week 14 win. San Francisco aims to split the season series after falling to the Rams in September.

Offense vs. Defense Matchup

Rams Offense vs. 49ers Defense:

• The Rams' passing game, led by Matthew Stafford, ranks 9th in the NFL (237.7 YPG) but faces a tough 49ers secondary, 3rd in opponent passing yards (182.6 YPG).

• LAR’s rushing attack (103.0 YPG, 25th) could struggle against San Francisco’s 12th-ranked run defense (115.9 YPG allowed).

• Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua form a dynamic WR duo, presenting matchup nightmares for a banged-up 49ers secondary.

49ers Offense vs. Rams Defense:

• The 49ers boast the 4th-best offense (378.5 YPG) but have struggled with giveaways (1.5/game, 26th).

• QB Brock Purdy (239.6 passing YPG, 7th) must contend with a Rams defense that allows 25.5 PPG but excels at forcing turnovers (1.2/game, 14th).

• With injuries to their backfield, the 49ers may lean on Deebo Samuel and George Kittle for explosive plays.

Key Matchups

1. Kupp & Nacua vs. 49ers Secondary:
   The Rams' top receivers will challenge San Francisco’s cornerbacks. Kupp's route-running and Nacua's contested-catch ability could dominate if Stafford is protected.

2. 49ers Run Game vs. Rams Front Seven:
   Even with injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, San Francisco’s zone-run scheme will test the Rams' 24th-ranked rush defense (141.0 YPG allowed).

3. Turnovers & Penalties:
   The Rams have the edge in turnover margin (+0.2/game) and are disciplined (4th-fewest penalties). The 49ers’ mistakes could prove costly in a close game.

Injury Impact

Rams:

• WR Demarcus Robinson, WR Jordan Whittington, and CB Cobie Durant (DNP Monday) are key absences to monitor.

• With RB Kyren Williams healthy, expect the ground game to play a larger role.

49ers:

• Key injuries include RB Mason (ankle), LT Trent Williams (knee), and DE Nick Bosa (hip).

Best Bets By TINA

1. Rams +3 (-115):
   The Rams' offense is hitting its stride, and their balanced attack gives them a chance to keep this close. They’ve already beaten the 49ers once this season and are healthier than their divisional rivals.

   • Confidence Level: 8/10

2. Over 50.0 (-110):
   Both teams have potent offenses, with the Rams averaging 22.9 PPG and the 49ers putting up 23.7 PPG. San Francisco’s banged-up defense and the Rams' inconsistent secondary could lead to a high-scoring affair.

   • Confidence Level: 7/10

3. Cooper Kupp Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115):
   Kupp remains Stafford’s go-to target, especially in high-leverage games. He’s likely to exploit the 49ers' secondary for big gains.

   • Confidence Level: 9/10

4. George Kittle Anytime TD (+150):
   With limited depth at RB, Purdy will rely on Kittle in the red zone against a Rams defense that ranks 24th in PPG allowed.

   • Confidence Level: 7.5/10

Final Prediction

The Rams’ balanced offense and recent momentum give them the edge against a 49ers team dealing with significant injuries. Expect a competitive game with plenty of scoring opportunities.

Final Score Prediction:
Rams 27, 49ers 24

Human Analysis👨

Alright, TINA clearly likes the Rams and even to win outright. I also like the Rams but for different reasons that she didn’t mention and I want to show a few matchups to watch.

However, I will not be surprised if the 49ers can win this in a shootout. Surprisingly, I think that scenario might favor SF over the Rams.

The Rams are better off controlling time of possession and using the run game in this one. That will also open opportunities for Purdy to make some mistakes.

Best Matchup: Kyren Williams vs. 49ers Defensive Front

SF is super weak up front and the Rams have a big advantage running to the right side. We could also see Puka and/or Kupp taking advantage of this on sweeps and WR run plays.

Could Be Best Matchup: 49ers Pass Game vs. Rams Pass Defense

The Rams secondary is terrible. If they are unable to get pressure on Purdy, they will be exposed. We saw it last week with the Bills and we could see it again. I don’t see how they stop Kittle, Jennings, Deebo, or anyone this week.

Kittle looks to have a favorable matchup wherever he attacks.

Even in the Nickel, the Rams secondary looks terrible.

Final Thoughts

I’ll be live betting this Rams / 49ers game. I do like the Rams at +3, but I think there might be some big swings and good value to find live.

As always, good luck out there! 💰🫡