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NFL Sunday Let's Make Some Money!
It's been tough to get a read on the NFL games lately but let's dive deep into a few games and see how it goes this week.
Mike Jelinek
December 22, 2024
Man, this CFB playoff has been just blow out after blow out so far. The home team favorites are just crushing the opposition. I would have really crushed it had the Ohio State game just gone under 52 points. I really loaded up on that alt under and had it in many parlays. Oh well… it’s back to the drawing board for today.
Moving forward I really like Ohio State and I also like Notre Dame in the next rounds. Penn State has a good matchup as well against Boise State.
I’m going to share my deep dive analysis into several NFL games for today. I didn’t focus on them all — just the ones I found interesting and feel like there are good opportunities.
Random Stuff From This Week 🤔
I knew I should’ve thrown all my money on Ohio State once I started seeing the comments on my Tik Tok roll in!
In case you are still hating on the Packers WRs.
NFL Analysis and Picks for Today🏈
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
Key Takeaways
Panthers’ Recent Resilience
Bryce Young’s recent progress and the offense scoring 15+ points in five of their last seven games suggest growth, though inconsistency remains a challenge.
Arizona’s Edge
The Cardinals’ elite rushing attack (third in YPC) matches perfectly against the Panthers’ league-worst run defense. James Conner and Kyler Murray should dominate time of possession.
Arizona’s defense is reliable, ranking 10th in points allowed, and its offensive line (5th in sacks allowed) gives Murray the protection needed to exploit Carolina’s shaky secondary.
Matchup Insights
Arizona’s Offense vs. Carolina’s Defense
Cardinals will lean heavily on their ground game to control the pace.
Murray’s mobility and Carolina’s 29th-ranked pass rush give Arizona opportunities for play-action and downfield passes.
Carolina’s Offense vs. Arizona’s Defense
Bryce Young can exploit Arizona’s 26th-ranked pass defense if protected.
Carolina’s rushing game should do alright against a respectable run defense, but Young will need to deliver.
Betting Recommendations
Arizona Moneyline (-235):
The Cardinals are better equipped for this matchup. A moneyline bet avoids spread risk in what could be a tighter game than expected.Carolina +5 (-105):
If you believe in Carolina’s recent fight, they’ve been competitive in games where they’re expected to lose, and Arizona’s road inconsistency supports this pick.
Final Prediction
Score: Arizona 26, Carolina 23
Arizona’s rushing attack edges out a close win, but Carolina’s grit and improved offense keep it competitive.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions: Team Overview
Offense:
Points/Game: 32.8 (#1)
Yards/Game: 403.9 (#2)
Rushing Yards/Game: 143.7 (#6)
Passing Yards/Game: 260.1 (#2)
Jared Goff has been having an MVP-caliber season, throwing for 3,759 yards with 30 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Even after the season-ending injury to David Montgomery, the Lions have leaned on the dynamic Jahmyr Gibbs, who has 1,047 rushing yards and averages 5.6 yards per carry.
The offensive line remains elite, allowing just 5.83% of dropbacks to result in a sack (#10 in the league), giving Goff plenty of time to operate. However, Goff’s performance has dipped historically in cold-weather games, and Soldier Field in late December could be a factor.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 20.1 (#7)
Yards Allowed/Game: 335.8 (#14)
Rush Defense: 101.3 Yards/Game (#6)
Pass Defense: 234.5 Yards/Game (#26)
The Lions' defense is missing key pieces, including DT Alim McNeill and CB Carlton Davis III, which could make them vulnerable to a Bears offense that has been inconsistent but has playmakers capable of taking advantage. Injuries at linebacker could also hurt their ability to contain Caleb Williams on designed runs and scrambles.
Chicago Bears: Team Overview
Offense:
Points/Game: 19.0 (#25)
Yards/Game: 288.2 (#32)
Rushing Yards/Game: 106.4 (#22)
Passing Yards/Game: 181.9 (#31)
Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been up and down. The Bears' offensive line has struggled, allowing 11.03% of dropbacks to result in sacks (#32 in the NFL), which could hinder their ability to sustain drives.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 22.0 (#11)
Yards Allowed/Game: 351.1 (#24)
Rush Defense: 133.3 Yards/Game (#26)
Pass Defense: 217.8 Yards/Game (#18)
Chicago’s defense has been up-and-down but has shown the ability to keep games competitive, especially at home. They rank 9th in third-down conversion defense (36.52%) and 3rd in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed (48.15%). However, their poor rush defense is a glaring weakness that Detroit will likely exploit.
Key Matchup Factors
Lions' Rushing Attack vs. Bears' Rush Defense:
Detroit’s run game, led by Jahmyr Gibbs, is among the best in the league. Meanwhile, Chicago’s rush defense ranks 26th, allowing 133.3 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Expect Detroit to control the tempo on the ground.
Caleb Williams' Home Performance:
Williams has been significantly better at home, with a passer rating of 97.5. His ability to extend plays with his legs could cause problems for Detroit’s injury-depleted front seven.
Jared Goff in Cold Weather:
Goff has historically struggled in outdoor, cold-weather environments. If the weather at Soldier Field is windy and freezing, it could disrupt Detroit’s high-powered passing attack.
Injuries:
Detroit’s injuries on defense (McNeill, Davis, Anzalone) and offense (Montgomery, Glasgow, Ragnow) might leave them vulnerable in key areas.
Chicago’s offensive line must protect Williams better to avoid drive-killing sacks.
Betting Trends
Lions:
9-5 ATS this season.
4-2 ATS on the road.
The Over has hit in 10 of their 14 games.
Bears:
6-6-2 ATS this season.
3-3-1 ATS at home.
The Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Best Bets
Spread: Bears +7
The Bears have played competitively at home, and Caleb Williams’ ball security combined with Goff’s cold-weather struggles could keep this game closer than expected.
Total: Under 48
Both defenses have significant vulnerabilities, but I think both teams will run often and slow this game down in the cold weather.
Final Score Prediction
Detroit Lions 28, Chicago Bears 21
Detroit’s offensive firepower will ultimately be too much for Chicago, but the Bears will keep it close enough to cover the spread. Expect a high-scoring affair where both teams find success on the ground and through the air.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets
Team Overview and Statistics
Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
Offense:
Points/Game: 22.1 (#17)
Yards/Game: 337.9 (#13)
Passing Yards/Game: 232.1 (#9)
Rushing Yards/Game: 105.8 (#23)
The Rams' offense has been steady but not explosive. Matthew Stafford has done well to manage the passing game, targeting Puca Nacua and others effectively. However, their rushing attack remains a concern, ranking near the bottom of the league in YPC. They are efficient in limiting giveaways, ranked 6th in fewest turnovers per game.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 24.1 (#24)
Yards Allowed/Game: 353.2 (#25)
Rushing Defense: 135.4 Yards/Game (#28)
Passing Defense: 217.8 Yards/Game (#18)
The Rams' defense struggles against the run but has been serviceable against the pass. A strong red-zone defense (6th) could be pivotal in forcing the Jets to settle for field goals.
New York Jets (4-10)
Offense:
Points/Game: 20.2 (#22)
Yards/Game: 307.0 (#25)
Passing Yards/Game: 217.3 (#18)
Rushing Yards/Game: 89.7 (#31)
Aaron Rodgers has shown flashes of his old brilliance in recent weeks, rejuvenating the Jets' passing attack. However, their rushing game remains anemic, ranked 31st in the league. The offensive line has improved in protecting Rodgers but still struggles to create lanes for the ground game.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 23.2 (#18)
Yards Allowed/Game: 315.0 (#7)
Rushing Defense: 121.1 Yards/Game (#16)
Passing Defense: 193.9 Yards/Game (#5)
The Jets boast a top-tier pass defense, ranking 5th in the league. Their defensive line can generate pressure (5th in sack rate), but their red-zone defense (20th) has been a weak point.
Key Matchup Factors
Rams’ Passing Attack vs. Jets’ Secondary
Stafford and Puca Nacua will face a Jets defense ranked 5th against the pass, allowing just 193.9 yards per game. The Rams' success will hinge on their ability to exploit intermediate routes and avoid turnovers against a disciplined secondary.Jets’ Ground Game vs. Rams’ Run Defense
The Jets rank 31st in rushing offense, while the Rams’ run defense ranks 28th. This presents a critical opportunity for the Jets to find success on the ground and relieve pressure on Rodgers.Red Zone Efficiency
The Rams' 6th-ranked red-zone defense will be key in limiting the Jets’ scoring opportunities, as New York ranks 21st in red-zone offense. The ability to convert field goals into touchdowns could decide this game.Time Zone and Rest Advantage
The Rams benefit from extra rest after playing on Thursday night, while the Jets have to rebound from a high-intensity overtime win. Early kickoffs in the Eastern Time Zone have historically been tough for West Coast teams, but extra preparation could mitigate this.
Betting Trends
Los Angeles Rams:
4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
The total has gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games.
New York Jets:
2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.
The total has gone Over in 5 of their last 7 games.
Best Bets
Spread: Rams -3.0 (-120)
The Rams are the more desperate team in playoff contention and have been effective on the road, winning four straight away games after a slow start. Their passing game should find just enough success against the Jets' strong secondary, and their stout red-zone defense will limit New York’s scoring chances.
Total: Under 47.0 (-105)
Both teams feature offenses that struggle with consistency and defenses that perform well in limiting big plays. The Jets’ ability to control the clock with a slow pace and the Rams’ inability to sustain long drives could keep this game under the total.
Final Score Prediction
Los Angeles Rams 23, New York Jets 17
The Rams will use their superior passing attack to build a lead, and their defense will step up in key red-zone moments to stymie Rodgers and the Jets. Los Angeles stays alive in the NFC playoff race with a hard-fought road win.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles: Team Overview
Offense:
Points/Game: 26.4 (#8)
Yards/Game: 373.2 (#6)
Rushing Yards/Game: 186.2 (#1)
Passing Yards/Game: 187.0 (#28)
Philadelphia boasts one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the NFL, led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. Hurts, who has totaled 32 combined touchdowns (18 passing, 14 rushing), adds versatility to an offense ranked 6th in total yards. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith provide reliable receiving options, though the Eagles rely more on ground dominance.
The offensive line, while strong in run blocking, has struggled in pass protection, allowing a QB sack rate of 9.77% (#31). Injuries to key players like TE Dallas Goedert and OL Landon Dickerson could impact offensive efficiency.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 17.6 (#1)
Yards Allowed/Game: 275.6 (#1)
Rush Defense: 102.2 Yards/Game (#7)
Pass Defense: 173.4 Yards/Game (#1)
Philadelphia’s defense has been elite, ranking first in multiple categories, including points and yards allowed. Their ability to stifle both the pass and run makes them a challenging matchup for Washington’s balanced offense. They will look to capitalize on rookie QB Jayden Daniels’ inexperience while leaning on a secondary that excels in coverage and limiting big plays.
Washington Commanders: Team Overview
Offense:
Points/Game: 28.3 (#6)
Yards/Game: 373.9 (#5)
Rushing Yards/Game: 155.5 (#3)
Passing Yards/Game: 218.4 (#16)
Washington’s offense is driven by rookie QB Jayden Daniels, who has impressed with his dual-threat ability. Daniels has accounted for 23 total touchdowns (17 passing, 6 rushing) while minimizing turnovers. Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson Jr. are the focal points, with McLaurin tallying 969 receiving yards and Robinson delivering consistent production on the ground.
Despite their high scoring, Washington’s offensive line has struggled, ranking 22nd in QB sack percentage (8.32%). Facing Philadelphia’s defensive front could pose problems in both pass protection and run blocking.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 22.5 (#16)
Yards Allowed/Game: 321.8 (#11)
Rush Defense: 132.1 Yards/Game (#25)
Pass Defense: 189.6 Yards/Game (#4)
Washington’s defense has been solid against the pass but weak against the run, ranking 25th in rushing yards allowed. This weakness could be a critical factor against the Eagles’ league-best rushing attack. The Commanders must also clean up penalties, as costly infractions have plagued them in recent weeks.
Key Matchup Factors
Eagles' Rushing Attack vs. Commanders' Rush Defense:
Philadelphia leads the league in rushing yards per game (186.2) and rushing touchdowns per game (1.9). Washington, meanwhile, struggles against the run, allowing 132.1 yards per game (#25). Expect the Eagles to exploit this mismatch.
Jayden Daniels' Composure vs. Eagles' Defense:
Daniels has shown poise but faces the NFL’s best pass defense. His mobility will be tested by Philadelphia’s disciplined front seven, which excels at containing dual-threat QBs.
Injuries on Both Sides:
Philadelphia is dealing with key injuries to TE Dallas Goedert and OL Landon Dickerson, which could impact their offensive rhythm. Washington’s banged-up offensive line and skill players might struggle against Philadelphia’s depth on defense.
Turnover Battle:
Philadelphia has a slight edge in turnover margin (+0.2 vs. +0.4), but both teams are disciplined in ball security. Whoever wins the turnover battle will likely control the game flow.
Betting Trends
Philadelphia:
6-1 ATS on the road this season.
9-5 ATS overall (tied 5th-best in the league).
The Eagles are 9-5 to the Under this season.
Washington:
5-2 ATS at home (3rd-best).
8-5-1 ATS overall (10th-best in the league).
9-5 to the Over this season.
Best Bets
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Philadelphia’s dominant rushing attack and elite defense give them the edge, even on the road. Expect the Eagles to control the game clock and limit Washington’s scoring opportunities.
Total: Under 45.5
Both defenses are capable of limiting explosive plays. The Eagles’ slow-paced, run-heavy offense combined with Washington’s struggles in finishing drives suggests a lower-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles 24, Washington Commanders 17
Philadelphia’s rushing attack and defensive dominance will be too much for Washington. While Jayden Daniels will make some plays, the Eagles’ experience and superior talent will secure a cover and keep the game Under the total.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
Team Overview and Statistics
San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
Offense:
Points/Game: 22.4 (#15)
Yards/Game: 365.1 (#8)
Yards/Play: 6.1 (#5)
Rushing Yards/Game: 133.5 (#8)
Passing Yards/Game: 231.6 (#10)
The 49ers are still strong offensively despite their recent struggles. They excel in efficiency metrics, ranking 5th in yards per play and maintaining a balanced attack between the run and pass. However, injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa, and Dre Greenlaw will test their depth. Brock Purdy has shown flashes of competency, but inconsistency and turnovers (9 INTs) remain a concern.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 22.9 (#17)
Yards Allowed/Game: 298.8 (#3)
Opponent Yards/Play: 5.0 (#6)
Pass Defense: 181.0 Yards/Game (#2)
Rush Defense: 117.8 Yards/Game (#15)
San Francisco's defense remains formidable, especially against the pass. The absence of key playmakers like Bosa weakens their ability to generate pressure, which could be critical against Miami's explosive offense.
Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Offense:
Points/Game: 19.7 (#24)
Yards/Game: 324.1 (#20)
Yards/Play: 5.1 (#23)
Rushing Yards/Game: 101.4 (#26)
Passing Yards/Game: 222.6 (#14)
Miami’s offense has struggled for most of the season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in key categories. However, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle back to full health, their passing game has become more dynamic. Rookie De'Von Achane adds a spark to the backfield, complementing their aerial threats.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 22.3 (#13)
Yards Allowed/Game: 308.6 (#6)
Opponent Yards/Play: 5.3 (#11)
Pass Defense: 205.0 Yards/Game (#8)
Rush Defense: 103.6 Yards/Game (#8)
Miami’s defense is the team’s backbone, excelling against the run and pass. Their ability to limit rushing efficiency will be crucial against a San Francisco offense that relies heavily on its ground game.
Key Matchup Factors
49ers’ Run Game vs. Dolphins’ Rush Defense:
San Francisco ranks 8th in rushing yards per game but faces Miami’s 8th-ranked rush defense. With Christian McCaffrey sidelined, the 49ers will lean on backups who may struggle to find room against Miami’s stout defensive line.
Dolphins’ Receivers vs. 49ers’ Secondary:
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle present significant matchup problems for San Francisco’s secondary. The 49ers excel at limiting passing yardage, but the speed of Miami’s wideouts could exploit their injury-depleted defense.
Quarterback Play:
Brock Purdy needs to avoid turnovers and manage the game effectively for San Francisco. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, must capitalize on mismatches against a weakened 49ers defense while staying upright against San Francisco’s pass rush.
Injuries:
San Francisco’s long injury list (McCaffrey, Bosa, Greenlaw) significantly impacts both sides of the ball. Miami, despite some lingering concerns, is trending healthier.
Betting Trends
San Francisco:
1-5 ATS in their last six games.
3-4 ATS on the road this season.
The total has gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games.
Miami:
4-3 ATS at home this season.
3-2 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone Over in 5 of their last 7 games.
Best Bets
Spread: Dolphins +1.5
Miami’s home-field advantage, healthier roster, and improved offensive efficiency with their stars back give them the edge. The 49ers’ injuries on both sides of the ball make them vulnerable in a high-stakes road game.
Total: Over 44.5
Both teams have the potential for big plays, particularly Miami with Hill and Waddle. San Francisco’s efficiency metrics suggest they can contribute enough points to push the total Over.
Final Score Prediction
Miami Dolphins 24, San Francisco 49ers 21
Miami’s home-field advantage and dynamic passing game will outpace a depleted San Francisco team. Look for the Dolphins to secure a narrow win in a game that remains competitive throughout.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Team Overview and Statistics
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
Offense:
Points/Game: 28.8 (#4)
Yards/Game: 388.4 (#3)
Yards/Play: 6.1 (#6)
Rushing Yards/Game: 144.4 (#4)
Passing Yards/Game: 244.0 (#4)
Tampa Bay’s offense is on a roll, led by Baker Mayfield, who has put up MVP-caliber numbers this season with 32 TDs and 3,617 passing yards. The team’s rushing attack, spearheaded by rookie Bucky Irving, is averaging 144.4 yards per game, ranking 4th in the league. Mike Evans remains a key target, leading the team with 749 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 23.3 (#19)
Yards Allowed/Game: 356.9 (#27)
Opponent Yards/Play: 5.6 (#21)
Pass Defense: 247.7 Yards/Game (#30)
Rush Defense: 109.2 Yards/Game (#11)
While Tampa’s defense struggles against the pass, their rush defense has been effective. They rank 10th in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed, a crucial factor against Dallas' inconsistent red-zone offense.
Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
Offense:
Points/Game: 21.3 (#19)
Yards/Game: 328.9 (#17)
Yards/Play: 5.0 (#25)
Rushing Yards/Game: 99.8 (#27)
Passing Yards/Game: 229.1 (#12)
Dallas’ offense has been underwhelming, especially on the ground, ranking 27th in rushing yards per game. Cooper Rush has been a capable fill-in for Dak Prescott, throwing 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions. CeeDee Lamb continues to shine with over 1,000 receiving yards.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 27.1 (#30)
Yards Allowed/Game: 356.0 (#26)
Opponent Yards/Play: 5.8 (#31)
Pass Defense: 219.9 Yards/Game (#21)
Rush Defense: 136.1 Yards/Game (#29)
Dallas' defense ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories, particularly against the run. They allow 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, the highest in the NFL, which sets up a tough matchup against Tampa’s elite rushing attack.
Key Matchup Factors
Buccaneers' Rushing Attack vs. Cowboys' Rush Defense:
Tampa Bay’s 2nd-ranked rushing efficiency (5.2 yards per carry) goes up against Dallas’ porous rush defense, which allows 4.8 yards per carry (29th). Bucky Irving should dominate on the ground.Cowboys' Passing Game vs. Buccaneers' Secondary:
Dallas leans heavily on its passing game, attempting the 2nd-most passes in the league, but their efficiency (6.3 yards per attempt) ranks just 27th. Tampa’s pass defense is vulnerable (30th), which could allow Cooper Rush to find success with CeeDee Lamb.Turnovers:
The Buccaneers are slightly better at protecting the ball, with a -0.1 turnover margin compared to Dallas’ -0.4. Mayfield’s aggressiveness can lead to mistakes, but Dallas' offense has been even more mistake-prone, averaging 1.7 giveaways per game.Red Zone Efficiency:
Tampa Bay thrives in the red zone, converting touchdowns on 65.45% of trips (6th), while Dallas struggles defensively, allowing touchdowns on 73.33% of opponent red-zone trips (last in the league).
Betting Trends
Tampa Bay:
5-1 ATS in their last six games.
4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against NFC East opponents.
The total has gone Over in 4 of their last 6 games.
Dallas:
1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.
4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The total has gone Under in 5 of their last 7 games.
Best Bets
Spread: Buccaneers -4.0
Tampa Bay’s dynamic offense, led by Mayfield and Irving, matches up perfectly against Dallas’ defensive weaknesses, particularly their inability to stop the run. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and have shown consistent offensive firepower.
Total: Over 48.0
Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in key metrics, setting the stage for a high-scoring affair. Tampa’s offense is efficient, while Dallas will likely exploit Tampa’s secondary.
Final Score Prediction
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Dallas Cowboys 24
The Buccaneers’ offense will control the game on the ground and in the air, while their defense will do enough to limit Dallas’ inconsistent attack. Tampa Bay extends their winning streak and solidifies their playoff position.
Final Thoughts
It feels like right now the best betting opportunities are in college football until these NFL teams start showing who they are a little more. I think we’ll start to see some good NFL betting opportunities this week and next. I really like Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football this week as my favorite bet.
Good luck out there!
-Mike