Let's Stack Decks💰🫡

Alright, people… I changed Minted Bets to Stack Decks. I owned both domain names and accounts. I’ve been thinking about building something for awhile now around my personal interests and sharing as much info as I can.

1. Minted Bets was limiting me to ONLY sports betting but I’m doing a lot more than just that. I primarily focus on sports betting during certain times of the year, but I move money around to different opportunities throughout the year. There are many other BIG BETS. I’d like to talk about it all.

2. I have a pretty diverse background — entrepreneur, crypto trader, futures trader, music producer / DJ, sports bettor, writer, reviews-obsessed consumer, blah blah blah… anyway, I want Stack Decks to mirror all of my interests (although, sports is still the most fun!).

3. I’m always trying to be on the cutting edge of what is next and I’m usually early (too early😬). I don’t stop hustling and want to share all the opportunities I’m finding.

4. So, let’s stack decks together!💰

Random Stuff From This Week 🤔

Mom doesn’t understand… but we get it.

Fanduel apparently fucked up these odds and some bettors just absolutely hammered them. I mean, why not, right? You get some elite level WRs for this value?! Yeah, until the game ends with no TDs! Now, some of the bettors want their money back!🤣

This guy below is starting at QB for the Saints this week. Jake Haener says he’s going to “let it rip” against the Commanders. See photos below to determine how much you’ll be betting against him on Sunday. I know my man, Corry, will be betting huge on Haener after seeing these photos.

When all of you talk about how the Packers are just average…

Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday

Game Context

• Date/Time: Saturday, December 14, 2024, 4:30 PM ET

• Spread: Milwaukee -3.5

• Moneyline: Milwaukee -165, Atlanta +140

• Total: O/U 228.5

Atlanta Hawks Analysis

The Hawks are red-hot and have shocked the league with a Cinderella run to the NBA Cup Semifinals. Atlanta has defeated elite teams like the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Knicks in this tournament. Their key players, De’Andre Hunter, Trae Young, and Jalen Johnson, are performing at a high level, with Johnson recording a monster double-double in the last game.

Strengths:

• Offensive Prowess: 8th in scoring at 116.7 PPG.

• Rebounding: 5th in total rebounds, which could limit Milwaukee’s second-chance opportunities.

• Defense in Transition: They force turnovers at the 4th-highest rate in the league.

Weaknesses:

• Three-Point Defense: Dead last in the league, allowing teams to shoot 38.2% from deep. This is a glaring problem against Milwaukee, which ranks 3rd in three-point shooting.

• Turnovers: Averaging 16 turnovers per game, which could hurt them against a Bucks team with defensive disruptors like Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Injuries: C Cody Zeller and G Seth Lundy remain out.

Milwaukee Bucks Analysis

The Bucks have bounced back from a slow start to win 7 of their last 10 games. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard leading the charge, and Khris Middleton finding his rhythm, the Bucks are looking like a serious contender. Their win over the Magic highlighted their ability to close out tight games, thanks to clutch moments from Lillard.

Strengths:

• Three-Point Shooting: 3rd in the NBA, hitting 39.3% of their shots from deep.

• Defensive Efficiency: Ranked 6th in field goal defense and 13th in overall defensive rating.

• Star Power: Giannis is a walking mismatch, while Lillard can take over games late.

Weaknesses:

• Rebounding Issues: Only 23rd in total rebounds, which could be exploited by Atlanta’s strong presence on the boards.

• Bench Depth: Still adjusting with Middleton not fully healthy and a few young contributors like Chris Livingston questionable.

Best Bets

1. Spread: Milwaukee -3.5
   The Bucks’ combination of elite three-point shooting and Atlanta’s struggles defending the perimeter makes them the better play. Giannis and Lillard will exploit Atlanta’s defensive lapses and I don’t expect ATL to get those easy looks at the rime with Lopez and Giannis down low.

2. Total: Under 228.5
   The intensity of the NBA Cup has driven down scoring across the board. Both teams will tighten up defensively, leading to a slower pace and fewer points.

3. Prop Bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks
   Giannis thrives in high-stakes games, and Atlanta’s high turnover rate gives him ample opportunities to pad these stats.

Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday

Game Context

• Date/Time: Saturday, December 14, 2024, 8:30 PM ET

• Spread: Oklahoma City -5.5

• Moneyline: Oklahoma City -235, Houston +195

• Total: O/U 212.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Analysis

The Thunder are on a mission, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), who has been sensational this season, averaging 30.2 PPG and dominating during the NBA Cup. In the quarterfinals, OKC defeated the Mavericks by 14 points, hitting 20 three-pointers and showcasing their elite defensive prowess. The Thunder lead the NBA in defensive rating and force turnovers better than any other team.

Strengths:

• Elite Defense: Ranked 1st in opponent points per game (103.8) and 1st in forced turnovers (19.2 per game).

• Ball Security: Fewest turnovers in the NBA, with just 11.8 per game.

• Three-Point Efficiency: Ranked 12th in three-pointers made per game (14.0).

Weaknesses:

• Rebounding: 28th in defensive rebounding efficiency, which could be exploited by Houston’s strong rebounding unit.

• Free Throw Volume: Dead last in free throws attempted per game, limiting their scoring potential in close games.

Injuries:

• Out: Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams

Houston Rockets Analysis

The Rockets have been one of the biggest surprises this season, leveraging their defensive grit and dominant rebounding to make a deep run in the NBA Cup. Alperen Şengün has been a force inside, while Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet provide scoring and playmaking. Houston advanced by defeating Golden State in the quarterfinals with stellar defense, holding the Warriors scoreless in the final three minutes.

Strengths:

• Rebounding: Best in the league, leading in total rebounds per game (59.2) and offensive rebounding efficiency.

• Defensive Rating: Ranked 3rd in opponent points per game (105.9).

• Balanced Scoring: Several players average double digits, spreading the offense across multiple threats.

Weaknesses:

• Three-Point Shooting: Ranked 27th in three-point percentage (32.7%), limiting their ability to keep up in high-scoring games.

• Turnovers: Although better than most teams, they struggle against elite defenses like OKC’s.

Injuries: None listed.

Best Bets

1. Spread: Oklahoma City -5.5
   The Thunder’s elite defense and SGA’s dominance should lead them to control this game. With Houston’s struggles from deep and OKC’s ability to force turnovers, the Thunder are poised to cover.

2. Total: Under 212.5
   Both teams boast top-three defenses. Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out game.

3. Prop Bet: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105)
   With Holmgren out, Hartenstein has stepped up, averaging 12.8 RPG as a starter. Houston’s aggressive rebounding style will provide ample opportunities for him to hit the over.

Army (-6.5) vs. Navy — Saturday

This game will hinge on Army’s ability to dominate the ground game and limit Navy’s explosive plays. Expect Navy to struggle against Army’s disciplined defense, while Bryson Daily leads the Black Knights to victory. The only way I see Navy taking this game is hitting big plays in the pass game and forcing a turnover, but Army just really does not turn the ball over.

Prediction: Army 27, Navy 17

Best Bets:

1. Army -6.5 (-115)

   • Army’s dominance on the ground and defensive strength give them the edge. They’ve covered in 5 of the last 6 games against Navy and Army is just the more consistent team this year. They’ve shown up in every game and were only outmatched by Notre Dame, who has a real shot at winning it all this year.

2. Over 39.0 (-105)

   • Both teams feature the most dynamic offenses they’ve had in years. While traditionally low-scoring, this year’s matchup should see enough explosive plays to hit the over. Everyone is used to this game going under, but I think this is the year that changes!

3. Kanye Udoh Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)

   • Udoh is Army’s go-to in the red zone, scoring in 4 of the last 5 games. This seems like pretty good value at plus-money.

NFL Best Bets and Predictions for Sunday

I did some deep dives into games I was interested in this week. Here are some high level picks and thoughts.

Ravens -16.5

Baltimore is superior in every phase of the game — specifically rushing offense and stopping the run. Despite their 8-5 record, their efficiency metrics align with top-tier teams. The Giants lack the firepower to cover such a large spread, especially against a Ravens team motivated to solidify playoff positioning. DeVito is also starting. This could get ugly fast. I’d probably also bet the Ravens to get a defensive TD.

Cowboys +3

First time the Panthers are a favorite all year — I don’t see the value on them here (go from 14-point underdog to 3 point favorite in one week!) and these teams are both playing hard right now. I definitely like how the Panthers are competing, but Dallas is not playing that bad lately either. I expect a lower scoring game.

Texans -3

Houston has the talent to get back on track and make a playoff run as expected in the early part of the year. If that’s going to happen, it starts now. Miami’s road inconsistencies and limited rushing attack (this year) leave them vulnerable against Houston’s turnover-hungry defense. If the Dolphins can somehow establish the run like last year, it would be a different game. CJ Stroud just needs to take care of the ball and get it to Nico Collins.

Lions -2.5

Detroit’s balanced attack, combined with Buffalo’s defensive struggles on the road, gives the Lions the edge here. Buffalo will likely need to attack deeper down the field to take advantage of Detroit in this game, but I feel like the Lions run game will slow the game down for Detroit and get them the win.

Steelers +5.5

Pittsburgh’s track record as underdogs under Mike Tomlin (65% ATS) is too good to ignore especially with this many points.

Packers -2.5

Green Bay’s rest advantage and superior rushing attack gives them a big advantage. Seattle has struggled against quality opponents, and their defense is ill-equipped to handle Josh Jacobs. Packers are 3-0 after a loss and 3-0 as road favorites. Go Packers

Final Thoughts

Found this interesting graphic on the NFL point differential by quarter. I’ll leave you with that. Maybe you can use it to make some good live bets this week!

Good luck this weekend! Hope you make some coin.🪙

-Mike